Posts Tagged ‘NPD’

Digital distribution has overtaken retail. 80% of gamers do not purchase games digitally.

Tuesday, September 21st, 2010

An interesting occurrence, as yesterday both the NPD Group and Interpret LLC issued reports stating that digital distribution was on the rise and decline at the same time.

The NPD report

According to NPD, in the PC gaming space, unit sales by download may have already surpassed traditional brick-and-mortar sales. January-June of 2010 saw 11.2 million PC games purchased in the U.S. via digital distribution methods versus the 8.2 million boxed, in store counterpart. When viewing 2009’s data, the year saw 21.3 million digital distro puchases, with 23.5 million boxes moving out the door.

However, NPD reports that PC software sales are down overall, with both digital and physical revenues down 21 percent from this time last year, attributed to a 14 percent drop in overall unit sales.

Another noteworthy factor in NPD’s research is their lack of direct relationships with digital retailers. Meaning, a large percentage of the data collected for this study was culled from third party tracking data, which, is generally quite accurate, but NPD still isn’t getting the figures directly from the supplier.

Conflict“One major finding from this latest report is that the ‘big got bigger’ in the first half of 2010, with both Steam and Big Fish capturing a bigger share of full-game PC games digital download sales than they did last year,” says NPD analyst Anita Frazier.

The Interpret LLC report

On the other side of the coin (and country), Santa Monica, CA based market research firm Interpret LLC found that between Q1 2009 and Q1 2010, 80 percent of gamers did not purchase games digitally. Obviously, after reading the above referenced NPD report, results and claims may vary depending on the data used.

Of the 20 percent of gamers that did purchase games digitally, Interpret found that this segment also tended to purchase more games at physical store locations as well. Interpret also found only “moderate” advances in digital distribution channels such as Steam, and similar “moderate” growth on console digital downloads such as the PlayStation Store, Xbox Live Marketplace, etc..

What’s key to note about Interpret’s report may be found in managing strategist Brenton Lyle’s statement, “It is critical that both the publishing and retail sides of the game industry avoid overreacting to a vision of rapid transition to digital distribution that fails to reflect reality,” meaning, depending on which data set you want to look at, the reality can be viewed quite differently.

Neither report took into account today’s highly active (and lucrative) microtransaction and/or subscription revenues that are generally associated with such large titles, nor did they include any virtual currency or goods purchased via social networking platforms.

Again, depending on your viewpoint, Digital Distribution has either already overtaken brick-and-mortal, boxed games, or…80 percent of gamers do NOT purchase games via digital distribution methods. You decide?

 

Social Games reach 1 in 5 Americans

Tuesday, August 24th, 2010

Social Gaming is big, there’s no doubt about it, but until recently, one might be hard pressed to guestimate just how big. According to a new report released by The NPD Group, 1 in 5 Americans has actively engaged in social gaming, in one form or another.

Breaking this down into numbers, the NPD report issued that 56.8 million Americans have played a social game on a social network. The included group was sampled from aged 6 and upwards. The “Social Network Gaming” report indicates that 35 percent of these social gamers are new to the scene, and had no previous experience with traditional gaming: PC, console, handheld, or other forms of video game play. That’s a huge percentage, one that developers must be excited about, as this 35 percent is the target audience that could further expand the entire gaming industry. I.e. get them in the door with something light and social, and then move them up the gaming chain. Sure, there’s going to be falloff, but some new percentage is better than no new percentage.

Adding to this excitement, 10 percent of those surveyed indicated that they’d spent real money on microtransactions in free-to-play titles. This would be the aforementioned new percentage. 11 percent said that they were likely to purchase something virtual in the future. The percentage grows!

Conversely however, more seasoned, traditional gamers say that social games are effecting the way their view their play time. These gamers indicated that they spend on average 20 percent less on gaming overall since delving into the social network based gaming world.

This new 10-11 percent of incoming gamers are more likely to be either female or older according to the report. When viewing the current state of social gamers, the report was fairly evenly split, with 47 male and 53 percent female.

“Although 35 percent of social network gamers are new to gaming, it’s clear that a lot of existing gamers have been drawn into the social network gaming arena as well. This impacts both the time they spend with other types of gaming, as well as the amount of money they’re spending on gaming. As more players are drawn into these games, the entire games industry is going to feel, and have to adjust to, the impact.”" says NPD Group analyst Anita Frazier.

[source: Gamasutra]

 

Free-to-play paying off big for Turbine

Monday, May 17th, 2010

This year’s annual survey of online gamers, as conducted by research firm the NPD Group, highlights some very interesting shifts in overall online gamer behavior. Recently acquired Turbine’s Dungeons and Dragons Online had overtaken long seated Guild Wars in the third place spot. As expected, Blizzard Entertainment’s World of Warcraft took the number one position, with Jagex’s RuneScape holding down second.

This past January, the NPD Group surveyed 19,000 online gamers and found that around 30 percent are regular WoW players, thus crowning the title king of online games (again). Around 10 percent of those surveyed indicated that they’re regular RuneScape players. According to Massively, both of these titles have held the top slots in this annual survey for quite some time now, with Guild Wars usually nabbing the number 3 spot.

Guild Wars’ percentage played has not changed this year (7 percent), and one would expect the results to remain the same. However, there’s been another player introduced to this highly competitive swimming pool, and it looks like this one’s a shark. Turbine’s Dungeons and Dragons Online: Eberron Unlimited has obviously struck a chord with online gamers, as the title’s popularity has doubled over the past year, enough so that it’s officially overtaken NCsoft’s Guild Wars. Even though DDO’s percentage was not given, it must be above 7 percent, but less than 10 percent, so for arguments’ sake, let’s say 8.5 percent.

If this isn’t the turn around/comeback/holy smokes story of the year, than I’m not quite sure what is. If you’ll remember, Dungeons and Dragons, while moderately popular, was at the phase in a product’s lifecycle where it either a) receives a major renovation, in one form or another, and is quasi-re-released, or…b) the title quietly subsides into the darkness where video games go to sleep. In DDO’s case, for many months it was looking like the later. Until … one (probably more, but let’s heighten the drama), brave individual at Turbine had the idea of converting the game to a free-to-play, and monetizing it through in-game sales, as well as offering a subscription plan to those that are interested (a hybrid, if you will).

Fast forward a few months, and it looks like the decision to take DOO to the free-to-play model has/is paying off handsomely. Not only has Turbine been acquired by Warner Bros., but they’ve now got a bona-fide hit on their hands, and on that was slated for the dustbin at that. The NPD report backs this supposition, as their data indicates that subscriptions are starting to lose their attractiveness to online gamers, down from 130 percent in 2009 to now a paltry 18 percent.

 

Nielsen reports record gaming for June 2009

Tuesday, August 11th, 2009

According to a new report published by Nielsen Co., this past June was a banner month in video game play. While sales of consoles might have been flat, it appears that those that already own a console (or two) spent record amounts of time (measured in minutes) gaming. According to a recent NPD Group survey June ’09 hardware sales took a beating, dropping 31 percent when compared to June ’08.

Compared to June 2008, Nielsen’s year-over-year numbers indicate a 21 percent increase in time spent with games. On average, gamers spent 12.8 hours playing during the month of June.

101576-games

Of particular interest, the Nielsen survey clearly indicates that consumers have reached the crucial critical mass numbers with ‘new generation’ consoles, the Xbox 360, PS3, and Wii, as half the minutes played during the month of June were dedicated solely to these consoles. Nielsen’s director of video game services, Geraldo Guzman comments, “The transition has happened. Now that there is critical mass on the new generation of consoles, it gives marketers a chance to reach gamers on the platforms which offer in-game advertising.” An interesting point, as currently only the Xbox 360 and PS3 support dynamically served in-game advertising. However, let’s not forget about the recent WipEoutHD iga fiasco.

The Nielsen study also indicates that more than 50 percent of all gamers are over the age of 18 (insert marketing opportunity here), with teens 12 – 17 making up the largest segment of minutes played players, a massive 25 percent.

 

Free to Play begins to show signs of chipping away at retail’s dominance

Monday, July 20th, 2009

According to new data released by NPD, video game sales are on a steady decline. Sales of software, hardware, and gaming peripherals fell 31 percent, down to $1.17 billion in June 2009. The month prior saw sales around the $1.7 billion mark. According to NPD analyst Anita Frazier, “this month saw the greatest year-over-year monthly decline since September 2000, when the industry declined 41 percent.” Overall, 2008 has seen sales of video games and their associated counterparts (hardware and joysticks, etc.) are down 12 percent YOY.

moneywashingtondollarAnd it’s not just the plastic wrapped shiny discs that aren’t moving off retailers’ shelves. Console sales revenues took a 38 percent hit, totaling only $382.6 million. Of the big three, Microsoft’s Xbox was the only console that actually increased sales during the month of June. Nintendo’s Wii saw a drop of 45 percent, and Sony’s (arguably overpriced) PS3 got clobbered with a 59 percent drop in sales.

And while a 45 percent drop in Wii sales might look bad on paper, Nintendo’s mobile gaming devices, the DS and DSi pulled down 766,000 sales receipts, larger sales numbers than all three consoles combined. If that wasn’t enough to cover the electric bill, Nintendo’s Wii Motion Plus accessory (an add on that makes the controller more accurate) clocked in with 374,000 units sold.

But hang on a second…haven’t we just heard that gaming is seeing a tremendous rise, partially contributed to the current economic situation? Just last week, comScore put out numbers indicating that the market had grown 22 percent in 2009, so what gives?

“Our latest gamer segmentation study suggests that more than 4m new ‘players’ have entered the games market since last year, so certainly the decline isn’t due to less folks participating in the industry,” NPD’s Anita Frazier explained.

“Some of these are new retail consumers and some are playing online for free, and others are a mix of both. The trick is to continue to figure out how to monetize all the gaming that is going on across PC, mobile devices, and video game systems.

“Certainly there is plenty of opportunity in the industry, but the rate of change in many areas of the industry presents a lot of challenge as well.”

So if the segment has seen a spike in usership, but yet, sales are slumping, where are all these people going? And better yet…where, on what, and if at all, are they spending their money?

“While some of the decline in retail sales could be a migration on the part of consumers to acquiring content via digital distribution, our reports on downloads and subscriptions reveal that it’s not yet having enough impact on the console market to be an overly meaningful factor in the retail down-turn. That said, there are increasing avenues for consumers to game, including via mobile devices, and it’s clear the industry is sorting through how to manage all these opportunities while deploying resources appropriately,” says Frazier.

Now I’m not one to pick at words (yes I am), but note that Frazier mentions only downloads and subscriptions. There are two key pieces of data that NPD is not addressing here. Browser based gaming, and in platform gaming (i.e. casual games apps on social networks). While NPD may be clocking downloads and subscriptions, there’s no indication that they’ve collected significant data on where these 4 million new gamers are going. They’re clearly not heading to the local Best Buy to drop $59.99 on the newest copy of Call of Duty, so again…where are they? My bet firmly lies in browser based, either within social networks, or directly, gaming. If that be the case, the even more important question is – how many of these new gamers, all playing for free, are or plan to make a microtransaction purchase?

 

As gaming business models evolve so do the legal practices associated with them

Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

As we all saw, E3 looks to have gotten it’s mojo back, and I can confidently say that the industry as a whole looks to be in a state of good health.  Of course, E3 is a trade show, where the industry gathers together to path each other on the back, and drool over all the new goodies in store, but combine this with the recent NPD Report indicating that nearly 2 out of every 3 Americans had played a video game in the past six months, and we’re really on to something here.

gavel1And while the focus has been mainly on games, game developers, publishers, etc., I’d like to take a step back and look at an industry that’s also reaping the rewards of a new found enthusiasm in the gaming: Legal.

A key driving factor to increased legal involvement in the gaming industry stems from the still evolving, but rapidly accelerated business model (read: microtransactions) that game makers rely on.  In the past, the path was simple, developers develop, and then hand the titles over to the publishers to push out into the market.  A great majority of developers’ legal fees when towards contracts with publishers, and that was the end of the road.  With the advent of social media, digital downloads, and increased involvement from developers themselves, comes an increased desire and need for legal council.

Patrick Sweeney, a lawyer specializing in the interactive media and entertainment firm, Nixon Peabody says, “There are more developers looking to step up to the plate with self-funded or partially funded games that they are able to monetize on better terms than the traditional model.”

Likewise, Mark Skaist, a 17 year vet of the video game industry, and partner at Stradling Yocca Carlson & Rauth comments, “Now that developers are doing things themselves, they have me working on rights clearance and other distribution related issues.”

Taking a look at Sony’s recent skyrocket, Free Realms, here we have a prime example of the increased need for experienced legal counsel.  Boasting an impressive 1 million registered users in just 17 days, it’s quite clear that Sony needed to have all their bases firmly covered before wading into the new business model waters.

Sony turned to the firm of Latham & Watkins partner Roxanne Christ to take them through these rigorous waters.  Christ and the firm are the folks responsible for establishing the rules that deal with players’ digital wallets, and end-user agreements, as well as relationships with external development studios.  “The shift to micro-transactions as a revenue model for the game raised legal issues that needed to be addressed,” says Christ.

The market, as well as the increased need for expert legal council hasn’t gone unnoticed by the legal industry.  Last year, the LA based firm Sheppard Mullin established a video game industry practice specifically tailored to address video game companies, developers, and publishers on issues of patent, entertainment, labor, and tax issues.  Amongst Mullin’s list of clients, one can find industry giants Sony Online Entertainment as well as Activision, which the firm represented in a patent infringement claim.

In 2007, the aforementioned Nixon Peabody acquired the firm of Offner & Anderson, a four attorney video game industry specialty shop.  Co-founder David Anderson says that his firms clients outgrew their exclusively corporate capabilities.  “We got to the point where we could better sever our clients at a bigger firm where were could provide them access to litigation and other practices,” Anderson says.

As the state of play continues to evolve, and more and new firms spring up, as well as the old stalwarts begin to take a look at alternative business models, my prediction is that we’ll also see an increase in legal firms that take a special interest in guiding and supporting these groups in charting relatively new waters.

 

NPD Report: casual gaming and digital downloads on the rise

Friday, May 22nd, 2009

A recent snippet of The NPD Group’s “Entertainment Trends in America” survey reveals that over the past six months, more Americans have turned to casual gaming and downloadable content over a night out at the cinema.  Close to 2 out of 3 Americans (63 percent) indicated that they’ve played a video game, while just over half have been out to the movies (53 percent) during the same period.

The survey also indicates that the increase in gaming is directly correlated to the increased availability and visibility of new and existing outlets for playing.  While not an overwhelming number, overall 10 percent indicated that they’d played a game on a social network, and 5 percent said that they’d paid to download a game from the web, a 2 percent increase from the same question last year.

“Video games account for one-third of the average monthly consumer spending in the U.S. for core entertainment content, including music, video, games,” said Anita Frazier, video games industry analyst for NPD. “While a portion of that share stems from the premium price of console games, we’re also seeing an overall increase in the number of people participating in gaming year-over-year.”

Clearly, as NPD’s Q1 2009 update to the “Entertainment Trends in America” survey includes data noting that the average gamer spent just over $38 per month on any and all types of gaming content.  Over the past year, NPD found that almost 1 in 3 (31 percent) of gamers purchased either a console or portable game, representing a .7 percent increase year-over-year.  Most interestingly, these ‘traditional’ gamers seem to be branching out, as among consumers who regularly play console or portable games, 31 percent indicated that they’d also played a game on a gaming website.  19 percent are playing on their mobile phones, 12 percent on a social networking site, and 11 percent purchased and downloaded a game to their mobile.

“As with video and music, sales of physical gaming products still account for the bulk of consumer spending on video games, but digital downloads and other delivery and game-play formats are also rising in popularity,” said Russ Crupnick, entertainment industry analyst for NPD.

 

It’s GDC Week!

Monday, March 23rd, 2009

Billed as ‘the’ game industry event of the year, the GDC kicks off later today in San Francisco.  Technically, the conference runs Wednesday through Friday, but a number of events are taking place on Monday and Tuesday that are sure to ignite imaginations and build solid connections.  According to Meggan Scavio, GDC Director, conference attendance is expected to be a bit off from last years’ whopping 18,000 attendants.  And while NPD reports that the gaming industry is still chugging along amidst an economic recession, lowered attendance is a clear indication of the uncertain financial outlook.

gdc-09-event-imageTwo standout highlights from this year include Wednesday mornings keynote speech by Satoru Iwata, chief executive of Nintendo.  This will be his third talk at the GDC, but his first since Nintendo’s Wii revolutionized what it means to be a ‘gamer’ and who’s included in the group.  Iwata is expected to speak about the DSi, the newest version of the popular hand held gaming platform originally launched in 2004.
Thursday morning brings industry legend Hideo Kojima, or Metal Gear fame, to the forefront; a ‘must see’ for any and all developers, designers, oh heck, if you’ve ever played a game – don’t miss this guy!

Games conferences are certainly about learning what’s hot, who’s got what technology coming out when, and making vital contacts, but let’s not forget about the events after the sun goes down.  This year, it looks like the Sony party is the hot ticket.  They’ll be kickin’ it hard on Wednesday night with their grand soiree.  In start contrast, with perhaps visions of AIG, Microsoft and Nintendo are slated to have a strong presence, but will be hosting lower-key events.

Also noteworthy is Apple’s presence, or lack there of, at the GDC.  Currently, there are approximately 6800 games available for the iPhone and iPod Touch.  These devices have been hailed as the fastest growing platform(s) in the industry.  Apple is there, but they’ve yet to announce any big undertakings.  A slight ‘huh?’ comes to mind, as again, this is the biggest industry event of the year.  If Apple were ready to blow the doors off something big, this would certainly be the showcase to do it at.

View the full schedule of GDC events here.

Naturally the fatfoogoo team will be at the event in full force.  Give us a shout, and let’s talk microtransactions!

  • Martin Herdina – CEO – martin (at) fatfoogoo (dot) com
  • Clive Jefferies – SVP Global Sales – clive (at) fatfoogoo (dot) com
  • Stevie Case – VP Sales & Business Development – Stevie (at) fatfoogoo (dot) com
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UK gearing up for best-ever Q4 game sales

Tuesday, November 25th, 2008

A recent report published by Top Global Markets, a combined monthly report from leading providers of the video games industry consumer and retail information, The NPD Group, GfK, Chart-Track Limited and Enterbrain Inc., shows that combined video game software sales across the world’s largest three markets had a 1 percent growth Q3 (July-Spetember) 2008.

The United Kingdom took the show, with a remarkable 15 percent growth rate, the US coming in a second at 8 percent.  To clarify, the UK has a skewed growth rate pattern though, as a 26 percent gain was experienced in console software, while portable software dropped 1 percent.  The US on the other hand might be a better indicator, with console software shipping plus 6 percent and portable software growing 10 percent.

“Taking into consideration the marked differences between the 3 territories, the UK market in particular is gearing up for a best-ever Q4 performance overall, even under the well-documented financial climate,” said Dorian Bloch, Business Group Director, GfK Chart-Track Limited.  “We fully expect UK consumers to drive sales for the full year to unprecedented heights, especially considering the line-up of exciting single and multi-format new franchises currently hitting the market, not to mention the evergreen portfolio of Nintendo-published Wii & DS titles which have done such a great job of expanding the market to a far more mainstream consumer.”

The US market, however, was the only sector to experience positive growth YOY with an 5 percent growth in Q3 ’07 and 8 percent Q3 ’08.  The UK, on the other hand, is experiencing explosive console software sales, but actually diminished growth YOY – a 34 percent increase in Q3 ’07 vs. a 15 percent increase in Q3 ’08.

“In the U.S., third quarter total industry unit sales grew 8 percent versus 2007, even as the economy showed accelerating signs of recession,” said Anita Frazier, industry analyst, The NPD Group.  “As would be expected at this point in the console lifecycle, games sales are starting to take the spotlight even as the average retail prices of games increased slightly.  Heading into the critical fourth quarter, the U.S. games industry is on solid ground.”

And then there’s Japan.

Most, if not all of our consoles are pumped out of Japan at an astonishing rate.  The flat performance of unit sales in Nippon cast a wave upon the Japanese software market, currently being felt across the industry.  Q3 ’08 shows a dramatic 21 percent overall decrease YOY, with consol software taking the biggest hit at 33 percent, portable software at 13 percent.

“Japan did experience sales declines in both software categories, but it is important to keep in mind that not only is Japan a more mature market than the U.S. and UK, but 2007 was a banner year for the Japanese software market, with the titles released in the third quarter of 2008 not being as highly anticipated as those released during the same time period in 2007,” said Ricky K Tanimoto, Global Marketing Analyst, Enterbrain, Inc. “Also, software titles generally have stronger launch sales in Japan, which represent a large percentage of the total sales in Japan compared to the U.S. and UK. In regards to expectations for the remainder of the calendar year, we estimate overall video game sales in Japan this holiday season will not be greatly affected by the world financial crisis, especially in the portable space. Portable software sales are particularly strong, and new portable hardware systems like Sony’s PSP-3000 and Nintendo’s DSi will prove to be driving market forces in Japan throughout the 2008 holiday season.”

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NPD reports that industry growth slows: Madden still drives it into the end zone

Friday, September 12th, 2008

According to NPD’s August numbers, the North American video game market only grew 9% year-over-year (August ’07-August ’08), indicating a slowed growth from previous months.  Software sales were however strong with EA’s Madden NFL 09 leading the pack; Nintendo pulling some equally strong numbers.
While 9% isn’t a massive growth rate when talking about widget sales, a 9% growth rate in the video game industry is still a commanding figure: $1.08 billion ’08, and a paultry $994.76 million in August ’07.  Hardware however, only clocked in at a 3% growth rate; $384.59 million ’07 – $394.53 million ’08.

NPD analyst Anita Frazier points out that this is the first time in 27 months the industry has seen only single-digit percentage growth.

Like the July numbers, software sales managed to beat the average improvement, rising 13% year-over-year from $489.06 million to $550.67 million.

The Nintendo DS and Wii took the top two spots respectively in the hardware sales slots, while Xbox 360 leapfrogged over the PS3, the PSP managed to beat both.

The cold hard facts:

August Hardware Per-unit Sales figures

  1. Nintendo DS – 518.3K
  2. Wii – 453.0K
  3. PlayStation Portable – 253.0K
  4. Xbox 360 – 195.2K
  5. PlayStation 3 – 185.4K
  6. Playstation 2 – 144.1K

While August wasn’t a great month for strong hardware growth Frazier comments, “The PSP and PS3 systems achieved the greatest percentage gain of all now-gen systems. The sales acceleration of these systems, combined with the recent Xbox 360 price cuts should fuel future growth of this category.”

I’m quite sure the folks in Richmond are quite happy about this.  Microsoft recently lowered the price of the entry-level Xbox 360 Arcade, which comes without a hard drive, to $199.

August Software Units Sold Figures

  1. Madden NFL 09 (Xbox 360, EA Tiburon/EA) – 1.0M
  2. Madden NFL 09 (PS3, EA Tiburon/EA) – 643K
  3. Madden NFL 09 (PS2, EA Tiburon/EA) – 424.5K
  4. Wii Fit (Wii, Nintendo EAD/Nintendo) – 394.9K
  5. Mario Kart Wii (Wii, Nintendo EAD/Nintendo) – 328.7K
  6. Wii Play (Wii, Nintendo EAD/Nintendo) – 200.2K
  7. Soulcalibur IV (Xbox 360, Project Soul/Namco Bandai) – 174K
  8. Too Human (Xbox 360, Silicon Knights/Microsoft) – 168.2K
  9. Madden NFL 09 All-Play (Wii, EA Tiburon/EA) – 115.8K
  10. Guitar Hero: On Tour (NDS, Vicarious Visions/Activision) – 111.2K

With the days growing shorter and cooler, combined with the media blitz concerning all things football, it’s shouldn’t really come as a shock that Madden is dominating the charts.  Regarding the slow growth over the month of August, sure, it IS the first time the sector has seen a single digit for the past 27 months, but I’m not quite sure it’s time to panic.  While there were 453k Wii sales, the DS clocked in at 518.3k, clearly indicating that gamers were on the go during the month.  As retailers begin to gear up for the coming holiday season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a report coming out of Port Jefferson extolling the rise in gaming consoles and software sales in the coming months.

And the PS2…are they really still making games for an outdated platform?

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