Posts Tagged ‘Barry Gilbert’

BOOM! Virtual Worlds expect explosive growth

Tuesday, June 16th, 2009

According to yesterday’s release from market research firm Strategy Analytics, the virtual worlds sector is set up for some truly phenomenal growth.  The Boston based firm projects the global virtual world population to grow from today’s approximately 186 million inhabitants to a whopping 640 million (the equivalent of twice the current US population) by 2015.  That’s nearly a 25 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR).  Say it with me now….holy crap!

39306The largest growing sector should come as no surprise, kids between the ages of 5 and 9.  Strategy Analytics predicts that this demo will grow 27 percent, while tweens and teens should see a growth rate of 21 percent.  This growth rate may be effected by what I discussed yesterday, regarding NPD’s reports on a younger trend of consumer electronics consumers, particularly regarding laptop computers.

In the report, “Virtual Worlds Market Forecast 2009-2015,” Strategy Analytics goes on to predict that virtual worlds will continue to improve the overall user experience, and thus convert registrations to active users at a 38 percent CAGR through 2015.

“The high conversion of registrants to active users demonstrates that users are finding value – in the form of entertainment, engagement, and social interaction,” according to Barry Gilbert, Vice President of the Strategy Analytics Gaming Sector and author of this report. In addition, Gilbert noted, “Access to virtual worlds across a variety of platforms, from consoles to mobile devices, will help catalyze growth.”

And now for the almighty Dollar.  Where’s the money coming from?  Well, according to the report, the top three to take to the bank are microtransactions, subscriptions, and advertising/sponsorships.  Said microtransactions are expected to grow from slightly over $1 billion in 2008 to….wait for it…..wait for it…..$17.3 billion in 2015 accounting for 86% of the revenue generated by virtual worlds.

Here’s how Strategy Analytics numbers break down (in millions):

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Obviously this is outstanding news for youth focused virtual worlds, including fatfoogoo client CampFu.  If there’s ever been a doubt about the staggering growth potential hidden in these virtual worlds, and the monetary potential stored away in virtual goods, if Strategy Analytics projections are spot on, these doubts could be summed up in one word: Shattered.

 

Guide to Total Economic Return from Virtual Worlds Applications

Wednesday, August 6th, 2008

Strategy Analytics recently released a new study titled, “Defining the Total Economic Return from Virtual Worlds Applications”.  This guide is mean to serve as a better informed roadmap for companies planning their virtual world investments in order to receive larger returns.

“Virtual Worlds have witnessed considerable growth among consumers, but companies have lacked the economic justification, metrics, and process to guide investments,” said Harvey Cohen, President of Strategy Analytics and chief architect of the study, while adding, “Virtual worlds can serve as a strategic catalyst for penetrating youthful markets as well as a checkpoint for demonstrating a company’s focus on innovation.”

Strategy Analytics estimates that there were 46m virtual world users in 2006, 90m in 2007, and projects 137m this year.  Keeping this growth rate in mind, that would place over 1 Billion virtual world users in 10 years time.  Granted, 10 year out projections can be a bit tricky, the general industry wide consensus shows now sign of hindering this explosive growth.  With the average consumer website engagement lasting only a few minutes, the average virtual world experience tend to be 45-50 minutes in duration.

“Companies will require more specific measurement tools in order to continue their investments in virtual worlds,” commented Barry Gilbert, Vice President and Research Director of the Strategy Analytics Virtual World Strategies program. “Multi-billion dollar global brand companies looking to target the global youth market should be investing a minimum of one percent of their advertising and promotional budget in virtual worlds.”

The downside of the report finds:

This report finds that many companies have found that investments in virtual worlds have not met expectations. Their problems begin with poorly implemented media strategies that do not include virtual worlds as part of an integrated PR and promotional effort, and end with a lack of understanding of the appropriate metrics for assessing economic impact. [...]

While companies can access virtual worlds with a small development investment, they often find that building and sustaining consumer momentum requires an on-going budget of at least 60% of their initial investment.

Strategy Analytics is quick to point out that the traditional ‘build it and they will come’ approach has been many top brands downfall.  Unfortunately, the virtual world landscape is littered with grandiose building (marketing) projects that have simply been set up, with little to no engagement and/or follow through from these brands.