Posts Tagged ‘Anita Frazier’

Free to Play begins to show signs of chipping away at retail’s dominance

Monday, July 20th, 2009

According to new data released by NPD, video game sales are on a steady decline. Sales of software, hardware, and gaming peripherals fell 31 percent, down to $1.17 billion in June 2009. The month prior saw sales around the $1.7 billion mark. According to NPD analyst Anita Frazier, “this month saw the greatest year-over-year monthly decline since September 2000, when the industry declined 41 percent.” Overall, 2008 has seen sales of video games and their associated counterparts (hardware and joysticks, etc.) are down 12 percent YOY.

moneywashingtondollarAnd it’s not just the plastic wrapped shiny discs that aren’t moving off retailers’ shelves. Console sales revenues took a 38 percent hit, totaling only $382.6 million. Of the big three, Microsoft’s Xbox was the only console that actually increased sales during the month of June. Nintendo’s Wii saw a drop of 45 percent, and Sony’s (arguably overpriced) PS3 got clobbered with a 59 percent drop in sales.

And while a 45 percent drop in Wii sales might look bad on paper, Nintendo’s mobile gaming devices, the DS and DSi pulled down 766,000 sales receipts, larger sales numbers than all three consoles combined. If that wasn’t enough to cover the electric bill, Nintendo’s Wii Motion Plus accessory (an add on that makes the controller more accurate) clocked in with 374,000 units sold.

But hang on a second…haven’t we just heard that gaming is seeing a tremendous rise, partially contributed to the current economic situation? Just last week, comScore put out numbers indicating that the market had grown 22 percent in 2009, so what gives?

“Our latest gamer segmentation study suggests that more than 4m new ‘players’ have entered the games market since last year, so certainly the decline isn’t due to less folks participating in the industry,” NPD’s Anita Frazier explained.

“Some of these are new retail consumers and some are playing online for free, and others are a mix of both. The trick is to continue to figure out how to monetize all the gaming that is going on across PC, mobile devices, and video game systems.

“Certainly there is plenty of opportunity in the industry, but the rate of change in many areas of the industry presents a lot of challenge as well.”

So if the segment has seen a spike in usership, but yet, sales are slumping, where are all these people going? And better yet…where, on what, and if at all, are they spending their money?

“While some of the decline in retail sales could be a migration on the part of consumers to acquiring content via digital distribution, our reports on downloads and subscriptions reveal that it’s not yet having enough impact on the console market to be an overly meaningful factor in the retail down-turn. That said, there are increasing avenues for consumers to game, including via mobile devices, and it’s clear the industry is sorting through how to manage all these opportunities while deploying resources appropriately,” says Frazier.

Now I’m not one to pick at words (yes I am), but note that Frazier mentions only downloads and subscriptions. There are two key pieces of data that NPD is not addressing here. Browser based gaming, and in platform gaming (i.e. casual games apps on social networks). While NPD may be clocking downloads and subscriptions, there’s no indication that they’ve collected significant data on where these 4 million new gamers are going. They’re clearly not heading to the local Best Buy to drop $59.99 on the newest copy of Call of Duty, so again…where are they? My bet firmly lies in browser based, either within social networks, or directly, gaming. If that be the case, the even more important question is – how many of these new gamers, all playing for free, are or plan to make a microtransaction purchase?

 

NPD Report: casual gaming and digital downloads on the rise

Friday, May 22nd, 2009

A recent snippet of The NPD Group’s “Entertainment Trends in America” survey reveals that over the past six months, more Americans have turned to casual gaming and downloadable content over a night out at the cinema.  Close to 2 out of 3 Americans (63 percent) indicated that they’ve played a video game, while just over half have been out to the movies (53 percent) during the same period.

The survey also indicates that the increase in gaming is directly correlated to the increased availability and visibility of new and existing outlets for playing.  While not an overwhelming number, overall 10 percent indicated that they’d played a game on a social network, and 5 percent said that they’d paid to download a game from the web, a 2 percent increase from the same question last year.

“Video games account for one-third of the average monthly consumer spending in the U.S. for core entertainment content, including music, video, games,” said Anita Frazier, video games industry analyst for NPD. “While a portion of that share stems from the premium price of console games, we’re also seeing an overall increase in the number of people participating in gaming year-over-year.”

Clearly, as NPD’s Q1 2009 update to the “Entertainment Trends in America” survey includes data noting that the average gamer spent just over $38 per month on any and all types of gaming content.  Over the past year, NPD found that almost 1 in 3 (31 percent) of gamers purchased either a console or portable game, representing a .7 percent increase year-over-year.  Most interestingly, these ‘traditional’ gamers seem to be branching out, as among consumers who regularly play console or portable games, 31 percent indicated that they’d also played a game on a gaming website.  19 percent are playing on their mobile phones, 12 percent on a social networking site, and 11 percent purchased and downloaded a game to their mobile.

“As with video and music, sales of physical gaming products still account for the bulk of consumer spending on video games, but digital downloads and other delivery and game-play formats are also rising in popularity,” said Russ Crupnick, entertainment industry analyst for NPD.

 

UK gearing up for best-ever Q4 game sales

Tuesday, November 25th, 2008

A recent report published by Top Global Markets, a combined monthly report from leading providers of the video games industry consumer and retail information, The NPD Group, GfK, Chart-Track Limited and Enterbrain Inc., shows that combined video game software sales across the world’s largest three markets had a 1 percent growth Q3 (July-Spetember) 2008.

The United Kingdom took the show, with a remarkable 15 percent growth rate, the US coming in a second at 8 percent.  To clarify, the UK has a skewed growth rate pattern though, as a 26 percent gain was experienced in console software, while portable software dropped 1 percent.  The US on the other hand might be a better indicator, with console software shipping plus 6 percent and portable software growing 10 percent.

“Taking into consideration the marked differences between the 3 territories, the UK market in particular is gearing up for a best-ever Q4 performance overall, even under the well-documented financial climate,” said Dorian Bloch, Business Group Director, GfK Chart-Track Limited.  “We fully expect UK consumers to drive sales for the full year to unprecedented heights, especially considering the line-up of exciting single and multi-format new franchises currently hitting the market, not to mention the evergreen portfolio of Nintendo-published Wii & DS titles which have done such a great job of expanding the market to a far more mainstream consumer.”

The US market, however, was the only sector to experience positive growth YOY with an 5 percent growth in Q3 ’07 and 8 percent Q3 ’08.  The UK, on the other hand, is experiencing explosive console software sales, but actually diminished growth YOY – a 34 percent increase in Q3 ’07 vs. a 15 percent increase in Q3 ’08.

“In the U.S., third quarter total industry unit sales grew 8 percent versus 2007, even as the economy showed accelerating signs of recession,” said Anita Frazier, industry analyst, The NPD Group.  “As would be expected at this point in the console lifecycle, games sales are starting to take the spotlight even as the average retail prices of games increased slightly.  Heading into the critical fourth quarter, the U.S. games industry is on solid ground.”

And then there’s Japan.

Most, if not all of our consoles are pumped out of Japan at an astonishing rate.  The flat performance of unit sales in Nippon cast a wave upon the Japanese software market, currently being felt across the industry.  Q3 ’08 shows a dramatic 21 percent overall decrease YOY, with consol software taking the biggest hit at 33 percent, portable software at 13 percent.

“Japan did experience sales declines in both software categories, but it is important to keep in mind that not only is Japan a more mature market than the U.S. and UK, but 2007 was a banner year for the Japanese software market, with the titles released in the third quarter of 2008 not being as highly anticipated as those released during the same time period in 2007,” said Ricky K Tanimoto, Global Marketing Analyst, Enterbrain, Inc. “Also, software titles generally have stronger launch sales in Japan, which represent a large percentage of the total sales in Japan compared to the U.S. and UK. In regards to expectations for the remainder of the calendar year, we estimate overall video game sales in Japan this holiday season will not be greatly affected by the world financial crisis, especially in the portable space. Portable software sales are particularly strong, and new portable hardware systems like Sony’s PSP-3000 and Nintendo’s DSi will prove to be driving market forces in Japan throughout the 2008 holiday season.”

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NPD reports that industry growth slows: Madden still drives it into the end zone

Friday, September 12th, 2008

According to NPD’s August numbers, the North American video game market only grew 9% year-over-year (August ’07-August ’08), indicating a slowed growth from previous months.  Software sales were however strong with EA’s Madden NFL 09 leading the pack; Nintendo pulling some equally strong numbers.
While 9% isn’t a massive growth rate when talking about widget sales, a 9% growth rate in the video game industry is still a commanding figure: $1.08 billion ’08, and a paultry $994.76 million in August ’07.  Hardware however, only clocked in at a 3% growth rate; $384.59 million ’07 – $394.53 million ’08.

NPD analyst Anita Frazier points out that this is the first time in 27 months the industry has seen only single-digit percentage growth.

Like the July numbers, software sales managed to beat the average improvement, rising 13% year-over-year from $489.06 million to $550.67 million.

The Nintendo DS and Wii took the top two spots respectively in the hardware sales slots, while Xbox 360 leapfrogged over the PS3, the PSP managed to beat both.

The cold hard facts:

August Hardware Per-unit Sales figures

  1. Nintendo DS – 518.3K
  2. Wii – 453.0K
  3. PlayStation Portable – 253.0K
  4. Xbox 360 – 195.2K
  5. PlayStation 3 – 185.4K
  6. Playstation 2 – 144.1K

While August wasn’t a great month for strong hardware growth Frazier comments, “The PSP and PS3 systems achieved the greatest percentage gain of all now-gen systems. The sales acceleration of these systems, combined with the recent Xbox 360 price cuts should fuel future growth of this category.”

I’m quite sure the folks in Richmond are quite happy about this.  Microsoft recently lowered the price of the entry-level Xbox 360 Arcade, which comes without a hard drive, to $199.

August Software Units Sold Figures

  1. Madden NFL 09 (Xbox 360, EA Tiburon/EA) – 1.0M
  2. Madden NFL 09 (PS3, EA Tiburon/EA) – 643K
  3. Madden NFL 09 (PS2, EA Tiburon/EA) – 424.5K
  4. Wii Fit (Wii, Nintendo EAD/Nintendo) – 394.9K
  5. Mario Kart Wii (Wii, Nintendo EAD/Nintendo) – 328.7K
  6. Wii Play (Wii, Nintendo EAD/Nintendo) – 200.2K
  7. Soulcalibur IV (Xbox 360, Project Soul/Namco Bandai) – 174K
  8. Too Human (Xbox 360, Silicon Knights/Microsoft) – 168.2K
  9. Madden NFL 09 All-Play (Wii, EA Tiburon/EA) – 115.8K
  10. Guitar Hero: On Tour (NDS, Vicarious Visions/Activision) – 111.2K

With the days growing shorter and cooler, combined with the media blitz concerning all things football, it’s shouldn’t really come as a shock that Madden is dominating the charts.  Regarding the slow growth over the month of August, sure, it IS the first time the sector has seen a single digit for the past 27 months, but I’m not quite sure it’s time to panic.  While there were 453k Wii sales, the DS clocked in at 518.3k, clearly indicating that gamers were on the go during the month.  As retailers begin to gear up for the coming holiday season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a report coming out of Port Jefferson extolling the rise in gaming consoles and software sales in the coming months.

And the PS2…are they really still making games for an outdated platform?

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NPD Group releases Games Segmentation 2008 Report

Thursday, August 14th, 2008

The market research firm the NPD Group recently released its 2008 Games Segmentation Report which reveals some staggering numbers.

According to the US Census population clock, there are currently 304 million Americans.  This includes all living breathing persons within the American borders.  While some of these people do not fall into the range of NPD’s survey (ages 2-65+), NPD found that there are approximately 174 million Americans playing games.  Even if we were to take the entire US population, that means that 1 out of every 2 Americans is playing some type of game on some type of platform.

The report divides the total number of gamers into 7 distinct “gamer segments” and analyzes their usage and ownership patterns.  The breakdown looks like so:

  • 3% are Extreme Gamers
  • 9% are Avid PC Gamers
  • 17% are Console Gamers
  • 14% are Online PC Gamers
  • 15% are Offline PC Gamers
  • 22% are Young Heavy Gamers
  • 20% are Secondary Gamers

Young heavy gamers make up the majority of the survey with a whopping 38 million strong.  These gamers tend to favor portable platforms, make up at least one third of the system owner’s group with 6 out of every 10 owning a DS and/or PSP.

On the other side of the coin, Extreme Gamers, those classified as playing a total of 22.3 or more hours per week, and having purchased nearly 24 titles across all their gaming platforms in the past three months, show a strong preference for the PS3 and Xbox 360.

“Although Extreme Gamers are heavily involved with the industry, they represent a small portion of the potential market for any new game that comes to market,” said NPD analyst Anita Frazier. “In order to promote continued growth, we must better understand all of the gaming segments.”

While the PC is used more than any single console for gaming, Extreme Gamers, Console Gamers, and Young Heavy Gamers are more likely to use consoles than a PC to play.

The study also found that Console Gamers; those that play on a console system, on average 8.2 hours/week, and purchased 3.2 games in the past three months, that own a PS3 are most likely to own other current gen consoles.  In contrast, only 10% of PS2 owners also own a PS3.

Regarding micro transactions, the NPD Group found that more than half of the Extreme Gamers and just over a third of Avid PC Gamers said that they would definitely download a feature to enhance a specific game that they own.

Speaking of downloads, 14% of games purchased in the past threee months across all segments were digitally acquired, with Avid PC Gamers making 27% of their purchases digitally.

About the NPD Group Study:

The data was collected from more than 20,000 members of NPD’s online consumer panel, ages two to 65+.  Responses for consumers ages two to 12 were captured by instructing a parent to take his or her child in this age range to the computer to answer the questions, either with or without the parent’s assistance. Qualified respondents reported they personally play video games on a PC, on a console or portable system, or on another device such as a mobile phone.  The following four key variables were used to create the gamer segments: ownership; usage; frequency; and purchased/received video games. Final survey data was weighted to represent the U.S. population of individuals ages two and older.  Fieldwork was conducted from January 11-February 5, 2008.

Note: This study was conducted in January, meaning that questions that refer to consumer behavior in the past three months include the Christmas/Hanukkah holidays.

Games Segmentation 2008 differs from Gamer Segmentation II (May 2007) primarily in the revised sampling methodology and the revised and updated Segment definitions. Gamer Segmentation II used a sample of individuals age 6 to 44. Games Segmentation 2008 uses a sample of individuals 2 to 99. By including all gamers, NPD will be able to continue to use and trend these segments for future waves.

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