Archive for July, 2009

Capcom reports record Q1 2009 growth

Friday, July 31st, 2009

Rounding out this week’s financial tallies (apart from yesterday’s Chinese Government PSA), the folks over at Capcom will most certainly be breaking out the veuve clicquot tonight, as they’ve recently reported record performance in Q1.

capcom-logo-colorEven in a market (aka economic downturn) that’s hit just about everyone across the industry, the Japanese developer posted a 23 percent profit growth, indicating a 19.2 percent revenue increase in Q1. Revenues spiked at approximately $204 million, with profits totaling $38 million. Big winners for Capcom include Resident Evil 5 for Xbox 360 and PS3, and Monster Hunter Freedom Unite for PSP. Japanese market sales figures clock 3.5 million copies of Monster Hunter Freedom Unite having moved out the door. Resident Evil 5 has also overtaken the number 2 all time selling title for Capcom, edging out Resident Evil 2, and is now just 1 million copies shy of dethroning Capcom classic Street Fighter II. Other strong performers include Ace Attorney Investigations: Miles Edgeworth for the Nintendo DS and Sengoku Basara Battle Heroes for the PSP.

According to Capcom, these Q1 numbers are officially the company’s strongest showing since beginning to track quarterly results.

However, even with these record numbers, it looks like the Capcom management team has taken the temperature of the current gaming market, and conservatively not raised their overall yearly fiscal forecast. The reasoning? Capcom cites expected strong industry competition in the second half of the year. Likewise the firm has also put the breaks on the release date of Dark Void, which is scheduled to appear on Xbox 360, PS3, and PC. Developed by Airtight Games, the title was originally scheduled for release in 2009, but is now looking at a Q1 2010 launch. Capcom is enthusiastic and optimistic about the sales numbers with Dark Void, projecting at least 2 million sales of the game.

 

China says “Take the Canoli, Leave the Mafia Games”: Official ban on Mafia-esque games

Thursday, July 30th, 2009

Sure, we’ve all read the reports about the runaway surge and success of the online and mobile ‘mafia’ type games and applications that are attracting record numbers of users on a daily basis, but it looks like it’s not all about the fun and games. At lease the Chinese Ministry of Culture doesn’t see it that way.

china-flagIn a statement released on Tuesday, the Chinese Government has officially banned websites from “running, publishing, or offering links to online games featuring mafia-like gangs.” The government is also threatening “sever punishment” for anyone violating the ban.

Again, if you’ve not already been asked to join so and so’s mob, ‘mafia’ type games involve virtual world simulations of gang mentality and actions. The way the Chinese Government sees it, these games “advocate obscenity, gambling, or violence,” and “undermine morality and Chinese traditional culture.”

The government has issued, in no uncertain terms, that internet operators of said titles should stop running, promoting, or offering links to these (now) “illegal” games immediately. In a show of “we’re not kidding” the Chinese Government has appointed law enforcement officials to step up their oversight of these activities, and inflict harsh penalties and punishment upon anyone caught offering links to or promoting Gangster/Mafia type games. “These games encourage people to deceive, loot and kill, and glorify gangster life. They are a bad influence on youngsters,” says the government statement.

Three of China’s go-to gaming destinations immediately pulled their mafia offerings as of Tuesday. Kaixin.com’s “Godfather”, mop.com’s “Jianghu” (gangster community), and xiaonei.com’s “Guhozai” (young and dangerous guys) were removed, with little to know warning to active players.

Naturally, the immediate removal of these games has set off a barrage of comments ranging from “It’s totally irresponsible” to “I just stole 3 million yuan in the game when the website suddenly went blank. I just can’t take it!”

With these gang type games being replicated by countless app and online developers, the removal of the Chinese market can only be seen as a major setback. Granted, this removal probably isn’t going to break the bank for major mafia type game producers such as Zynga’s Mafia Wars or Playmesh’s iMafia, but smaller developers may now have to refocus or re-develop their apps with this recent Chinese ban in mind. To that I say – is that necessarily a bad thing? With the market flooded with these types of games, perhaps this ban is just what some studios need to start working on ‘the next big thing’.

 

Gameloft reports 20 percent increase in sales over the first half of 2009

Wednesday, July 29th, 2009

Ah yes, what would mid-summer be without a plethora of financial statements and results? Charting the results coming out this week, we’ve got Changyou up, Ubisoft down, and Gameloft up. In Gameloft’s primarily mobile gaming focused world, Q’s 1 and 2 have seen reasonable growth, indicating that they’re clearly delivering what customers want.

Banking approximately €60 million during the first half of 2009, representing a 20 percent growth year-over-year. Side by side, Gameloft’s numbers:

gameloft numbers

With the majority of their focus on building mobile games utilizing Java, Brew, and Symbian technologies, 95 percent of the company’s revenues derive from this sector. The remaining 5 percent come from console games sales. Gameloft also supports titles for WiiWare, DS, Xbox LIVE arcade, iPod/iPhone, and PCs. Gameloft attributes part of it’s success to manufacturers advancements and innovations, specifically Nokia and Samsung. Obviously, when speaking mobile games, one can and must not overlook the 800 pound gorilla in the room that is Apple’s iPhone, which Gameloft points to as a source of it’s success, citing the AppStore as a major source of income. And not to be left out of the party, Gameloft is also seeing significant numbers arising from RIM’s blackberry devices.

Gameloft has a number of partnership agreements with some of the largest names in the business including Viacom, Sony Pictures, ABC,, Ferrari and Ubisoft Entertainment, as well as individual personalities such as Kobe Bryant, Derek Jeter, Reggie Bush, and yes….Chuck Norris. Perhaps Gameloft can leverage some Chuck Norris to help Ubisoft’s faltering numbers?

While Gameloft maintains a network of offices around the world, the largest share of Q 1+2 revenues came from Europe (38 percent). North America continues to be a strong growth market, garnering 33 percent of Gameloft’s first half revenues, and showing a 39 percent increase in activity. The remaining 28 percent of revenues come from areas listed only as “the rest of the world.” Stepping back and looking at the year-over-year picture thus far, Europe again takes the top earning spot with 43 percent, North America showing 30 percent, and “the rest of the world” making up 27 percent of total sales.

 

Ubisoft takes a Q1 51 percent nosedive

Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

While yesterday’s report of company record setting revenues from Changyou might be a plus for the gaming industry, major French publisher Ubisoft reported a massive 51 percent drop in Q1 sales to €83 million, or approximately $114 million. This drop represents a missed financial guidance target of 12 percent. Low numbers are attributed to slow sales of Nintendo DS titles, as well as back catalogue PS3 and Xbox 360 games. Company Chief Yves Guillemot said that sales in both the U.S. and Europe have seen a “very sharp slowdown.”

ubisoft“We are currently experiencing a very sharp slowdown in our sales for Nintendo DS as well as sales of back-catalog titles, in the context of a market that is tougher than anticipated,” Guillemot said. “This will have a significant impact on our first-half showing. Against this backdrop, the solid performance of our Wii titles combined with the successful launches of Anno and Call of Juarez are points of satisfaction and demonstrate that good products are continuing to sell well.”

However, it’s not just the sharp slowdown that’s affecting Ubisoft. Guillemot also points to piracy, specifically in the DS sector, as a factor in the company’s poor showing. “Piracy is strong so we are working to put new figurines and new elements in the boxes that will change that in the future… for example in Europe we have the same market share in DS this year as last year…,” Guillemot said. “We see a different attitude toward piracy in the U.S. than Europe. We did a survey that said our consumers will be more willing to buy products than pirate them. ”

This under-performance has led Ubisoft to take on some “damage control” measures. To that end, Ubisoft has reduced its Q2 projections to €80 million ($110 million). Previous Q2 projections were set at €130 million, or $178 million. This deflation of numbers will then represent a 54 percent decrease in Ubisoft’s year-over-year revenues from 2008.

Notably, Ubisoft’s delays in getting Spinter Cell Conviction and Red Steel 2 out the door don’t bode well. Likewise, Ubisoft has also delayed the releases of Ghost Recon and I Am Alive from a projected date sometime in Q4 09 to sometime in 2010.

“We are disappointed that we have to postpone the release of several major games but we consider that this choice is the best one in the long-term interests of Ubisoft,” Guillemot added. “…The excellent response to our games at E3, as well as the high buzz generated for titles such as Assassin’s Creed 2, Splinter Cell Conviction and Avatar, reinforce our belief that the company can achieve strong growth in the second half of the fiscal year.”

With troubling numbers, release date delays, and piracy running rampant, the question begs to be asked; Is now the time that Ubisoft might want to start taking a long hard look at the free-to-play model? Historically, game development has been done at a rather rapid pace (be that a plus or minus), and piracy would literally be eliminated. Granted, Shadowbane went the F2P route, but was closed on July 1 of this year, but we’re also looking at a title that’s almost 6 years old, and lagged behind in a number of areas of today’s free-to-plays. Let’s see just how, and with what Ubisoft can pull itself out of the slump.

 

Changyou reports $66.6 million in Q2 revenues

Monday, July 27th, 2009

Beijing, China based Changyou announced today their fiscal results for Q2 2009. Topping out at a company record $66.6 million, up 8 percent quarter-over-quarter, and a massive 39 percent increase year over year. Looking at the companies’ aggregate active paying accounts, or APA, Changyou’s two MMORPG’s, Tian Long Ba Bu and Blade Onlinegrew by 5 percent quarter-over quarter and an impressive 32 percent increase year-over-year. Changyou now counts 2.39 million active paying accounts. The ARPU, or average revenue per user has also risen by 4 percent quarter-over-quarter, and a 6 percent increase year-over-year to 186 RMB or approximately $27. Changyou believes that this is within the range of affordability of the majority of Chinese online gamers.

changyou“Our relentless focus on building our business for the long-term by actively seeking out and implementing feedback from game players to improve the user experience continues to pay off,” said Mr. Tao Wang, Changyou’s chief executive officer. “This, combined with the ongoing strength of the online gaming industry in China and its status as a defensive play in difficult economic times, has helped us deliver another quarter of record results. Our user-centric strategy, strong R&D capabilities and regular release of expansion packs has allowed us to maintain the upward momentum of our games, and we expect this to continue going forward. With our growing user base and expanding online and offline marketing capabilities, I am confident in our ability to deliver sustainable growth.”

Mr. Alex Ho, Changyou’s chief financial officer, added, “During the second quarter, our key operating and financial metrics continued on a healthy and upward trend, demonstrating our ability to execute our well-defined strategies. Boosted by the continued popularity of our games, particularly Tian Long Ba Bu, total revenues and net income once again exceeded guidance. With our debt-free balance sheet, rich cash flows and high profitability, we are poised to capitalize on opportunities as they arise. ”

However, while there might be an increase in a number of Changyou’s stats, the company is reporting a decrease in the PCU (Peak Concurrent Users) number, which topped out around the 950,000 mark. This is a 2 percent decrease from Q1, but, a 23 percent increase year-over-year. The most pressing issue for Changyou right now may be their decreasing overseas presence. Licencing revenues for Q2 dropped 27 percent quarter-over-quarter, and 42 percent year-over-year to a mere $1.7 million. Changyou accredits the rise and maturity over greater competition in these markets.

Based on current numbers and quarterly results, Changyou expects to post revenues between $67 – $69 million in Q3 2009.

 

This train keeps-a-rollin’: SOE’s Free Realms now near 5 million users

Friday, July 24th, 2009

Sony Online Entertainment pres John Smedley has got plenty to be happy about these days. After taking a risk with their newest offering, Sony set out to change the way the mass population of both gamers and non-gamers alike view free-to-play titles. Launching only last April, SOE’s Free Realms is quickly becoming the poster child for free-to-play success. Having garnered 1 million registered users in a blistering 10 days, the company hasn’t been short on celebrating it’s own success, with a press release coming out what seemed to be every few days indicating that yet another million users have past through the Free Realms doors.

Keeping right in line with this rocket to the moon success story, SOE President John Smedley announced yesterday at Comic-Con International in San Diego that the title was now close to having 5 million registered users participating. Obviously, Sony’s gamble with a free-to-play/microtransactions supported business model is starting to pay off. And it seems that the finance department has taken note as well, as Sony has now officially sanctioned the introduction of microtransactions into two of it’s oldest, and perhaps best known MMO titles: EverQuest and EverQuest II. Smedley comments, “We now have 34 percent of our EverQuest II users using microtransactions.” He also noted that fans of the original EverQuest are making microtransaction purchases at only a slightly lower percentage.

Free Realms’ success may be a great story in it’s own right, but the timing of the release couldn’t have been better. DFC analyst George Chronis, who served as a moderator of the panel that Smedley revealed these stats at cites, “right now, 33 percent of revenue generated by games in the United States is generated by people playing MMOs.”

“When something gets popular, like Ultima Online did and EverQuest did, everybody rushes in,” said Chronis. “And World of Warcraft added a lot of interest, but MMOs are changing,” he said, referring to other MMO models like the free-to-play approach taken by many Asian publishers.

Speaking to the Asian influence, Nexon’s Min Kim was also on the panel and describes the companies Asian games market as “truly massive.”

“When people started talking about it back in 2003 or 2004, people said Western games would never want to do this, to play a game for free and then buy and items. And now everybody is saying, ‘We’re going to have microtransactions as part of our business model.”

If the expression is something akin to, “the proof is in the pudding,” I’d say Nexon’s been in the kitchen for quite a while now, but it looks like SOE may just be the ones bringing the dishes out to customers. Close to 5 million of them.

 

KZero clocks 579m registered virtual world accounts

Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

Virtual Worlds consultants and analysts KZero recently pumped out two mid-summer virtual world statistics that should get you to sit up and pay attention. They’ve provided not only a breakdown of where people are headed, but what age groups are predominant in these virtual worlds.

kzero_full_circle

Admittedly, the first set up stats is slightly complex at first glance, but upon further inspection, these charts are nothing short of eye opening.

This chart visualizes ages breakdowns and the associated virtual worlds that these ages are taking part in, along with each individual world’s launch data and timeline.

If pretty circular chats with fancy blue and red dots don’t really do it for you, KZero has gone the extra mile and broken things down even more. According to their research, the Q2 2009 virtual worlds sector inhabitant count now stands at 579 million. This number represents a 38.6 percent increase over Q1, where inhabitant totals stood at 417 million.

q2-2009-reg-accs-chart5

Taking data-points of the average age of users within each world, and then allocating this data to all accounts, KZero affirms that predominant age in these worlds is 14. The majority of these VW inhabitants come from big players including Weeworld, Habbo, and Stardoll.

Having a different look at the same data, the graph below represents cumulative registered accounts by age.

q2-2009-reg-accs-chart3

There’s obviously a plethora of activity in the 5-14 age group, a moderate increase from 15-20, but after that, a relatively flat curve. For the purposes of this study, Second Life was excluded.

As KZero points out, the majority of activity, and associated monetization scramble, is happening in the 10-15 year old age group. Totaling 334 million registered accounts, over 57 percent of the entire segment, this age segment represents the largest potential for growth. Holding 19 percent of the entire segment is the 5-10 year old age group. Clearly, youth oriented virtual worlds such as CampFu are smack dab right in the middle of the majority of virtual worlds citizens’ radar.

 

Magic: The Gathering creators Richard Garfield and Skaff Elias join Mind Control Software

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

C’mon, admit it; who among us doesn’t have a healthy stack of Magic: The Gathering cards somewhere in a bottom drawer? Up on the shelf in the closet maybe? If you’re a true gamer, chances are you’ve spent plenty a night (or 287) working out statistical advantages and disadvantages of this deck or that. And if your attention has waned in favor of some pixel filled magic, fear not – Magic: The Gathering is making a digital comeback. Of sorts.

mind twistMind Control Software and Magic: The Gathering creators Richard Garfield and Skaff Elias have recently announced a collaboration to produce a new title: Mind Twist. Building on his 15+ years of game development experience, Garfield is setting out to fuse the best of both the tabletop gaming experience with real-time online strategy games.

“The potential of digital games fascinates me and I left Wizards of the Coast to pursue them,” said Richard Garfield. “Mind Control has the expertise to bring my designs to a new generation of gamers, and the platform technology to build the right ‘meta—game’ around them.”

He may be best known for his paper game genius, but Garfield appears to want to take some of the ‘serious’ out of his games, and add a bit more ‘casual’ flavor. He sees tabletop card games as something that might be intimidating to the casual player, as they soon realize that building high powered decks often take lengthy amounts of time, and come with a hefty price tag. In this digital envisioning of a Garfield creation, the collaboration will focus on 10 minute battles. Instead of purchasing individual cards, players will be able to buy pre-constructed armies that offer some customization. Garfield describes Mind Twist as “less of an arms race, less of a learning curve” than Magic: The Gathering.

Mind Twist will be a free-to-play/microtransactions supported title. However, addressing the pay-to-pwn question, Garfield points to the expandability of armies as a way to minimize exposure. By purchasing entire armies at a time, players can not hand pick and develop armies as they could in Magic. “I don’t have the weight of my 50 purchases behind me; I just have that one deck, and my [personal] experience,” says Garfield.

Initially, Mind Twist is slated for delivery on the iPhone and Facebook, with plans to add additional platforms over time. In an interview with Gamasutra CEO Andrew Leker says, “We can really port anywhere the market says we can port. There’s no limitations to the platform we can be on given the nature of the games and the technology.”

While still unofficially planned, Mind Twist could find a home at the PlayStation Network, PSP, or DSi. Mind Control Software’s Orbital Game Platform client-server architecture is constructed in such a way that “once the server components are built, given the nature of the games… They can be played anywhere,” says Leker.

Mind Twist is still deep in development and the Mind Control Software labs, with only a teaser site up at the moment. However, according to Leker, a release date may not be that far off. “We’re building the prototype; it’s playable right now. We continue tuning it for the two initial platforms, we get the online multiplayer running… We play it and play it and play it, add the right content and game design. We have to build out the server infrastructure.” Time to launch? “Probably in the neighborhood of at least six months.”

 

Sweden wants to tax MMO Items and Avatar sales

Tuesday, July 21st, 2009

Be forewarned Swedes and those the trade/sell with Swedish residents – the taxman commeth. The eagle-eyed folks at GameCulture caught the Stockholm News report detailing efforts by the Swedish government to come to terms with the growing global virtual economy.

swedishchef460According to the Stockholm News, “The Swedish Tax Agency [Skatteverket] hold that you have to pay tax for selling an avatar from a computer game. The agency has investigated the trading in avatars during a 14 month period and found the advertised sum of avatars for sale by Swedes to be 662 million SEK [$85 million]. But no one has ever declared any income for trading in avatars to the Tax Agency.”

In other words, if you sell your account either in Sweden or to a Swedish national, the government wants a piece. As much as I can moan and groan about this, I almost kinda/sorta see their justification. However, this is where all logic and reasoning end, as the Swedish government may legally push things a bit further, and have the option to enact taxation on purely in-game/virtual world sales. Courtesy of the Virtual Economy Research Network, an interpreted snippet of Swedish Tax Law states:

“Transactions between participants in a virtual world, where the deal is about the sale of a “product” or a “service” against reimbursement in an internal currency, should be considered, according to the Swedish Tax Agency’s ruling, [actual] sales of electronic services, if the internal currency can be exchanged to a valid legal means of payment.”

In other words, if you need the services of another in game character, let’s take blacksmithing for example, if the crafter charges you 10 gold to make your new mace, if s/he’s Swedish, technically, s/he should be charging you 13 or so gold for this, as they will then have to pay a real world tax on this virtual transaction. With that said, obviously, this argument hinges on proof that this in-game currency can be “exchanged to a valid legal means of payment.”

And while most major MMO publishers, and even the Chinese government have put actions in place that should prevent real world trading of virtual currencies, a quick perusal of eBay shows no shortage of characters, virtual goods, and virtual currencies all for sale, i.e. “valid legal[?] means of payment.” Obviously, this is highly suspect, as eBay trading isn’t an officially recognized trading platform, with no organized currency exchange, rates, or even oversight. However, this does constitute a form of virtual to real currency exchange, and therefore, would fall under the “we want a piece” Swedish taxation law.

Moreover, what does this mean for the free to play market? MMO’s with secondary markets could be a prime target for Swedish tax officials. What’s even more disturbing (as noted above) is that even residing outside of Swedish borders could have far reaching consequences. Regardless of your nationality or place of residence, if you sell/buy/trade with a Swedish national, the Skatteverket might want a slice of your purchase. According to the Economics of Virtual World’s:

[Note that] a sale has taken place in Sweden if the seller is a Swedish trader who sells [to]… a private person in Sweden or another EC [European Community] country. A sale from a foreign trader to a Swedish trader has also [legally] taken place in Sweden. The same applies if a trader from outside the EC sells services to Swedish private persons.

Thus, even U.S. citizens are subject to Swedish taxes in virtual worlds, as long as one of the participants is Swedish. The implication is that if similar tax rules are adopted around the globe, U.S. citizens could end up owing taxes to Sweden, Japan, South Korea, and other nations (depending on which and how many worlds they are part of) – all because they played some games…

Obviously, this is something that could effect gaming on a global level, and something we’re watching with great interest. On a lighter note, is it just me, or did every Swedish MMO player just get a seriously bad name, and can get used to grinding as no one’s going to buy/sell/trade a single thing with them?

“LF Enchanter”

“I can Enchant”

“Nationality?”

“Swedish”

“K. TNX. BAI.”

 

Free to Play begins to show signs of chipping away at retail’s dominance

Monday, July 20th, 2009

According to new data released by NPD, video game sales are on a steady decline. Sales of software, hardware, and gaming peripherals fell 31 percent, down to $1.17 billion in June 2009. The month prior saw sales around the $1.7 billion mark. According to NPD analyst Anita Frazier, “this month saw the greatest year-over-year monthly decline since September 2000, when the industry declined 41 percent.” Overall, 2008 has seen sales of video games and their associated counterparts (hardware and joysticks, etc.) are down 12 percent YOY.

moneywashingtondollarAnd it’s not just the plastic wrapped shiny discs that aren’t moving off retailers’ shelves. Console sales revenues took a 38 percent hit, totaling only $382.6 million. Of the big three, Microsoft’s Xbox was the only console that actually increased sales during the month of June. Nintendo’s Wii saw a drop of 45 percent, and Sony’s (arguably overpriced) PS3 got clobbered with a 59 percent drop in sales.

And while a 45 percent drop in Wii sales might look bad on paper, Nintendo’s mobile gaming devices, the DS and DSi pulled down 766,000 sales receipts, larger sales numbers than all three consoles combined. If that wasn’t enough to cover the electric bill, Nintendo’s Wii Motion Plus accessory (an add on that makes the controller more accurate) clocked in with 374,000 units sold.

But hang on a second…haven’t we just heard that gaming is seeing a tremendous rise, partially contributed to the current economic situation? Just last week, comScore put out numbers indicating that the market had grown 22 percent in 2009, so what gives?

“Our latest gamer segmentation study suggests that more than 4m new ‘players’ have entered the games market since last year, so certainly the decline isn’t due to less folks participating in the industry,” NPD’s Anita Frazier explained.

“Some of these are new retail consumers and some are playing online for free, and others are a mix of both. The trick is to continue to figure out how to monetize all the gaming that is going on across PC, mobile devices, and video game systems.

“Certainly there is plenty of opportunity in the industry, but the rate of change in many areas of the industry presents a lot of challenge as well.”

So if the segment has seen a spike in usership, but yet, sales are slumping, where are all these people going? And better yet…where, on what, and if at all, are they spending their money?

“While some of the decline in retail sales could be a migration on the part of consumers to acquiring content via digital distribution, our reports on downloads and subscriptions reveal that it’s not yet having enough impact on the console market to be an overly meaningful factor in the retail down-turn. That said, there are increasing avenues for consumers to game, including via mobile devices, and it’s clear the industry is sorting through how to manage all these opportunities while deploying resources appropriately,” says Frazier.

Now I’m not one to pick at words (yes I am), but note that Frazier mentions only downloads and subscriptions. There are two key pieces of data that NPD is not addressing here. Browser based gaming, and in platform gaming (i.e. casual games apps on social networks). While NPD may be clocking downloads and subscriptions, there’s no indication that they’ve collected significant data on where these 4 million new gamers are going. They’re clearly not heading to the local Best Buy to drop $59.99 on the newest copy of Call of Duty, so again…where are they? My bet firmly lies in browser based, either within social networks, or directly, gaming. If that be the case, the even more important question is – how many of these new gamers, all playing for free, are or plan to make a microtransaction purchase?